We believe rigorous quantitative forecasting and predictive modeling can reveal the long-term consequences of decisions made in the present, which improves the chances of a policy being successful over the long term. The Researcher for Political Event Forecasting will contribute to the continued development of OEF Research’s forecasting track, which presently focuses on the risks of future coup attempts and instances of election violence around the world. The successful candidate will be responsible for working on these established models with other OEF Research staff, while also developing new models that predict other aspects of global peace within the candidate’s area of expertise. In addition to creating the forecasts, the Researcher for Political Event Forecasting will also write popular and academic articles related to these forecasts. The Researcher will be encouraged to present our work to expert audiences, as other members of the forecasting program have recently done at the U.S. State Department, United Nations, and elsewhere. In addition to these core tasks, the Research Associate will be responsible for actively promoting modeling as a tool for research and policy analysis both within OEF and externally, and for developing other projects where quantitative models can be used to support policy analysis and change. The Researcher will collaborate with (and occasionally train) other OEF researchers, research assistants, and interns.
Qualified candidates with completed doctorates in political science or a related field will be considered at the rank of Research Associate. In addition to the list of responsibilities that follows, Research Associates are expected to independently design and execute research projects that align with the mission of the OEF Research forecasting program.