For Predicting Elections Globally, Polls Do Surprisingly Well

Although the outcome of the recent U.S. presidential election was surprising for many given the polling data, a team of researchers that includes OEF Research’s data scientist, Stefan Wojcik, defends the use of polls to predict elections globally. Their findings have been recently published in the journal Science.

The researchers drew upon a data set of 86 countries and more than 500 elections, and found that elections were about 80-90% predictable.

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