Analysts counted 18 attempted coups around the world in 1966 and none at all in 2007 or 2018. According to CoupCast, a predictive model based on 68 economic and other variables, Africa is the only continent where the factors that foster coups are still fairly widespread (see map).
The growing discomfort with how large social media platforms can be a tool for fueling real-world violence and empowering autocratic behavior often masks an equally important narrative: social media can be a source of good, especially in fragile states. This fact sheet - a continuation of the OEFR s...
The fight against terrorism and criminal networks tends to focus on efforts on land, ignoring the role of the maritime domain. This results in a collective blind spot regarding complex problems like modern-day piracy, non-state terrorism, and transnational criminality.
Hopes for peace in Burundi have been stymied as mediation talks have once again been postponed. If the government had implemented transitional justice mechanisms from an earlier peace and reconciliation agreement, would peace have had a better chance?
The goals of this first ever Annual Risk of Coup Report are two-fold. First, it provides an in-depth global and regional look at the likelihood of coup events for 2019 based on a combination of quantitative forecasting and qualitative analysis of specific coup-prone states.
What are the likelihoods for coup events in 2019? The first ever Annual Risk of Coup Report explores by providing an in-depth global and regional look, using a combination of quantitative forecasting and qualitative analysis in order to provide a different kind of tool-kit for forecasting future cou...
Perhaps the most rigorous quantitative forecast of political upheaval comes from One Earth Future (oef), an ngo based in Colorado that publishes a predictive model, CoupCast.
On Wednesday, handling the panel on ’Regional threat assessment’ were Dr. Bell of Stable Seas; Mr. Sernia of UNODC and Ms. Kirillas of Interpol. The next panel was on 'commercial shipping operations in the GoG and this was handled by Mr. Large of BIMCO; Mr. Gibson of Shell-OCIMF; Captain Escarras an...
Asyura Salleh joined One Earth Future (OEF) as Project Manager for the Stable Seas program in 2018 in which she oversees engagement and research projects on Indo-Pacific issues, including the expansion of the Maritime Security Index.
This illustrated guide to sustainable fishing practices is a resource for Somalis seeking guidance on ways to ensure their ocean resources remain healthy and abundant.
The plight of the youth across the continent has only got worse. Perhaps a solution could be derived through tackling an element of corruption often overlooked – illicit financial flows – in the different African jurisdictions.
Jay Benson is a Senior Researcher with OEF Research, a nonprofit research organization focused on issues of international conflict and governance. His work concentrates on maritime security, peacekeeping operations, and civilian protection. This article is derived from his research with Stable Seas,...
Though historically the number of armed conflicts has been declining, there has been a recent surge in ongoing civil wars. Intrastate armed conflicts therefore represent a persistent and dangerous threat to global stability.
PASO Colombia facilitates sustainable peace by developing collaboration platforms that successfully mobilize the local intelligence and resources of remote rural communities, and connects them with national and international institutional knowledge, capital, and markets.
