OEF Research Workshop on Forecasting Conflict

ISTANBUL, TURKEY - JULY 16, 2016: Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wave flags as they capture a Turkish Army APC. Getty Images/Stringer
Event Date: Thursday, October 20, 2016
Event Location: University of Notre Dame's Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies

Attendance for this event is by Invitation Only

Researchers working on a wide range of political events are using new forecasting methods and “machine learning” to predict future coups, conflicts, and election outcomes. This workshop brought together nearly twenty of these researchers to discuss the future of political forecasting and devise strategies for connecting new forecast models to the practitioners and policy-makers who could use this work to advance their agendas.

Projects to be presented at the workshop include:

  • “Projecting the Incidence of Interstate War to 2040” by Dr. Bryan Frederick (RAND) and Dr. Jennifer Kavanagh (RAND)
  • “Forecasting Conflict Escalation: A Machine Learning Approach” by Dr. Nils Metternich (University College London)
  • "Can We Predict the Next Coup d’Etat?” by Dr. Curtis Bell (OEF Research)
  • “538 for the World? Forecasting Global Presidential Elections” by Dr. Ryan Kennedy (Northeastern University and the University of Houston), Dr. Stefan Wojcik (Northeastern University and Harvard University), and Dr. David Lazer (Northeastern University)
  • “Forecasting the Emergence of Rebel Groups in Africa” by Dr. Jessica Maves Braithwaite (University of Arizona) and Tiffany Chu (University of Arizona)
  • “Monitoring Front Lines and Conflict Developments Using Social Media Data” by Chris McNaboe (The Carter Center)

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