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June 28, 2019

West Africa quickly becoming a global piracy hotspot

Just over a week ago, One Earth Future published their annual Stable Seas program report detailing the state of global maritime piracy for the 9th year. Surprising findings include the fact that for the first year the Western Indian Ocean reported no hijackings including Somania, the Gulf of Aden an...
June 25, 2019

Rescuing multilateralism

The One Earth Future foundation notes, for example, that: “the African continent will be forced to face negative challenges with negative AI” due to weak governments and social divisions. In this context, European efforts to establish multilateral rules for technology governance may appeal to other ...
June 19, 2019

Piracy in West Africa: The world's most dangerous seas?

One Earth Future, which produces an annual State of Maritime Piracy, says that while attacks have been falling substantially in some regions of the world, in West Africa they've been on the rise and are now more frequent than anywhere else.
June 18, 2019

This is how the ex-combatants of the Farc live in Valle del Cauca

In fact, in the rural area of ​​Tuluá, a space has been established for coexistence between ex-combatants and victims of the conflict, which has become a model at the national level, with the support of entities such as the Peace Secretariat of the Valley, Undp and the Paso Colombia Foundation, amon...
June 15, 2019

Sudan and Algeria overthrow despots but not their political systems

Analysts counted 18 attempted coups around the world in 1966 and none at all in 2007 or 2018. According to CoupCast, a predictive model based on 68 economic and other variables, Africa is the only continent where the factors that foster coups are still fairly widespread (see map).
Victor Odundo Owuor
Dianna E. Almanza
June 05, 2019

Unpacking Social Media Use in Stabilization Efforts

The growing discomfort with how large social media platforms can be a tool for fueling real-world violence and empowering autocratic behavior often masks an equally important narrative: social media can be a source of good, especially in fragile states. This fact sheet - a continuation of the OEFR s...
May 23, 2019

Five Ways Terrorists Use the Maritime Domain

The fight against terrorism and criminal networks tends to focus on efforts on land, ignoring the role of the maritime domain. This results in a collective blind spot regarding complex problems like modern-day piracy, non-state terrorism, and transnational criminality.
May 22, 2019

Trust and Justice In Burundi

Hopes for peace in Burundi have been stymied as mediation talks have once again been postponed. If the government had implemented transitional justice mechanisms from an earlier peace and reconciliation agreement, would peace have had a better chance?
Jay Benson
Matthew Frank
Clayton Besaw
Jonathan Powell
Eric Keels
April 26, 2019

Annual Risk of Coup Report - 2019

The goals of this first ever Annual Risk of Coup Report are two-fold. First, it provides an in-depth global and regional look at the likelihood of coup events for 2019 based on a combination of quantitative forecasting and qualitative analysis of specific coup-prone states.
April 26, 2019

Annual Risk of Coup Report - 2019

What are the likelihoods for coup events in 2019? The first ever Annual Risk of Coup Report explores by providing an in-depth global and regional look, using a combination of quantitative forecasting and qualitative analysis in order to provide a different kind of tool-kit for forecasting future cou...
April 23, 2019

How to predict a coup

CoupCast finds that economic misery is linked to higher coup risk, as is extreme weather. But political factors matter more.
April 20, 2019

How to predict when a despot will fall

Perhaps the most rigorous quantitative forecast of political upheaval comes from One Earth Future (oef), an ngo based in Colorado that publishes a predictive model, CoupCast.