CoupCast - Political Forecasting

CoupCast was created by a team at One Earth Future in 2016 as a part of OEF’s commitment to developing evidence-based approaches to understanding the risks of conflict. Until August 2021, One Earth Future teams used historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis. Using historical coup activity, CoupCast identified the baseline risk factors and short-term triggers that greatly increase the likelihood of a coup. All the data collected was open-source and unclassified. For just over five years, CoupCast proved to be a valuable tool for our understanding of the risks of coups and instability around the world, and something we know has been a useful part of the larger research and policy discussion around coups.

Wrapping up

While data collected by OEF through August 2021 remains available on OEF’s Dataset page, our data collection -- for REIGN and around ongoing coup risk estimation for CoupCast -- has ceased. Based on our ongoing development of OEF’s strategic plan, continuing CoupCast updates no longer aligns directly with our current focus on broader issues of coordination in peacebuilding efforts. For more information please contact OEF Director of External Affairs, Kara Nichols, or Communications Manager, Haley Littleton.

 
CoupCast uses historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis. Using historical coup activity, CoupCast identifies the baseline risk factors and short-term triggers that greatly increase the likelihood of a coup. All the data are open-source, unclassified, and available on the Dataset page.
Forecasted coup risk - August 2021
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Highest Liklihood of a Coup: Calculating ...
Coup Risk Over Time
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