Wrapping up
While data collected by OEF through August 2021 remains available on OEF’s Dataset page, our data collection -- for REIGN and around ongoing coup risk estimation for CoupCast -- has ceased.
CoupCast was created by a team at One Earth Future in 2016 as a part of OEF’s commitment to developing evidence-based approaches to understanding the risks of conflict. Until August 2021, One Earth Future teams used historical data and machine learning to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in any country on a month to month basis. Using historical coup activity, CoupCast identified the baseline risk factors and short-term triggers that greatly increase the likelihood of a coup. All the data collected was open-source and unclassified. For just over five years, CoupCast proved to be a valuable tool for our understanding of the risks of coups and instability around the world, and something we know has been a useful part of the larger research and policy discussion around coups.