Research & Reports

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Research & Analysis Reports

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February 05, 2024

Event Horizon News Digest

Methodology and Scope Note
Event Horizon is a news digest focusing on monitoring emerging risks before they become visible crises. It examines developing stories with significant implications for global stability, stories that may breach critical thresholds beyond which escalation may become irreversible.
Jaewoo Shin
Tianran Xu
Elin Bergner
January 04, 2024

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - December 2023

Nuclear risk can emanate from various factors. These range from the more obvious military developments and incidents that could lead to increased tensions and possibly even nuclear misuse, to the often overlooked domestic and external contexts in which a country perceives its circumstances and, base...
Jaewoo Shin
Tianran Xu
Elin Bergner
December 07, 2023

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - November 2023

Nuclear risk can emanate from various factors. These range from the more obvious military developments and incidents that could lead to increased tensions and possibly even nuclear misuse, to the often overlooked domestic and external contexts in which a country perceives its circumstances and, base...
November 09, 2023

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - October 2023

Nuclear risk can emanate from various factors. These range from the more obvious military developments and incidents that could lead to increased tensions and possibly even nuclear misuse, to the often overlooked domestic and external contexts in which a country perceives its circumstances and, base...
Tianran Xu
Jaewoo Shin
Elin Bergner
October 09, 2023

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - September 2023

Nuclear risk can emanate from various factors. These range from the more obvious military developments and incidents that could lead to increased tensions and possibly even nuclear misuse, to the often overlooked domestic and external contexts in which a country perceives its circumstances and, base...
Tianran Xu
Jaewoo Shin
Elin Bergner
September 12, 2023

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - August 2023

In an attempt to more comprehensively assess nuclear risks on and around the Korean Peninsula, this monthly Report examines the DPRK’s and the ROK’s nuclear and military spheres, as well as activities and policy decisions across main domestic and foreign policy spheres that could impact nuclear risk...
Tianran Xu
Jaewoo Shin
Elin Bergner
August 10, 2023

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - July 2023

In an attempt to more comprehensively assess nuclear risks on and around the Korean Peninsula, the Report examines the DPRK’s and the ROK’s nuclear and military spheres, as well as activities and policy decisions across main domestic and foreign policy spheres that could impact nuclear risks.
Tianran Xu
August 08, 2023

Brief on 27 July 2023 Parade of the DPRK

Strategic Delivery Vehicle Developments Series
To celebrate the 70th "Victory Day" (Korean War armistice) anniversary, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) staged a military parade on 27 July 2023, which was centered around the DPRK’s nuclear forces.
Pavel Podvig
Eleanor Krabill
Vivienne Zhang
Eric Lepowsky
Manuel Kreutle
Christoph Wirz
Alexander Glaser
Jaewoo Shin
Veronika Bedenko
July 31, 2023

Menzingen Verification Experiment

Verifying the Absence of Nuclear Weapons in the Field
The Menzingen Verification Experiment conducted on 8 March 2023, was organized by UNIDIR in partnership with the Swiss Armed Forces, Spiez Laboratory, Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security, and ONN. This report describes the procedure and the key results of the experiment.
Tianran Xu
Jaewoo Shin
Elin Bergner
July 12, 2023

Nuclear Risk Assessment Report - June 2023

In an attempt to more comprehensively assess nuclear risks on and around the Korean Peninsula, this monthly Report examines the DPRK’s and the ROK’s nuclear and military spheres, as well as activities and policy decisions across main domestic and foreign policy spheres that could impact nuclear risk...
Tianran Xu
June 29, 2023

Size Estimates of DPRK's Nuclear Devices

The DPRK nuclear warheads showcased before 2023 have a maximum diameter of around 600 mm and were likely intended to be delivered by ballistic missiles. The Hwasan-31 nuclear warhead, newly revealed in late March 2023, has a reduced diameter of around 460 mm, suggesting advances in miniaturization. ...
Juan Fernando Lucio
June 21,2023

A Different Approach to the Reincorporation of Ex-Combatants

The Case of PASO Colombia
Juan Fernando Lucio, director of PASO, published an article in IntechOpen with his reflections on the reincorporation perspective adopted in the Havana Agreement (2016), and introduces the model developed by PASO to enhance collective economic reincorporation. Lucio offers lessons learned that could...
Tianran Xu
April 14, 2023

The DPRK's First Solid-Propellant ICBM Launch

Strategic Delivery Vehicle Development Series
On 13 April 2023, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) conducted its first flight test of a solid-propellant intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Hwasong-18.