Why Global Coup Risk is Down and What a Coup-Free 2017 Could Mean for International Politics

CoupCast: estimated risk of at least one coup attempt occurring somewhere in the world over the next calendar year, 1975 - 2017

2017 is on track to become the second calendar year in nearly a century without an attempted coup d’état. If 2017 does turn out coup-free, will it, like 2007, turn out to be short-lived, or could it be an important milestone in international politics? OEF Research's CoupCast project learns from past coup activity to predict monthly coup risk globally. Using country-by-country and month-by-month risk estimates, CoupCast can generate the risk of a coup occurring anywhere in the world in the coming calendar year. This blog post explains all the reasons for a recent decline in coup risk to support our cautious optimism.

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