The Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) and Open Nuclear Network (ONN) are collaborating on a research project to better understand the range of expert views on the risk factors that may lead to nuclear weapons use at a catastrophic scale.
This project aims to map out the different expert viewpoints on the risk of nuclear catastrophe in the next two decades. This includes views on the overall likelihood of such a catastrophe, the most likely risk pathways and factors influencing risk and the potential impact of interventions.
ONN and the FRI formalized their commitment through a memorandum of understanding (MOU) earlier this quarter.
The One Earth Future (OEF) is an operating foundation that designs and implements innovative peacebuilding programs worldwide. The OEF works with communities affected by conflict to eliminate the root causes of war. The foundation has offices and operations in Africa, North and South America and Europe. ONN is an OEF programme operated and managed by the OEF’s independent subsidiary organisation in Europe, One Earth Future Austria. ONN is designed to assess the evolution of nuclear risks worldwide, initially focusing on Northeast Asia, utilising open-source information tools, such as knowledge platforms, data centres and overhead imagery. It designs, promotes and implements tailored risk prevention or intervention projects based on its risk assessments.
The FRI is a nonprofit organisation that develops forecasting methods to improve decision-making on high-stakes issues. The FRI works with policymakers and nonprofit organisations to design practical forecasting tools and test them in large experiments. The FRI produces academic research exploring the optimal way to elicit forecasts, to identify accurate forecasters and to integrate research with decision-making. The FRI also produces technical reports describing and contrasting forecasts from experts, policymakers, and the public on high-stakes issues like nuclear war, artificial intelligence and biotechnology.