Opinions & Insights

Opinions & Insights

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September 20, 2017

Peace by the Numbers: A Debate

A new analysis of conflict data begs the question: do the data show a random risk of major war, or is there evidence that the decline in wars over the past 70 years is related to external causes?
February 03, 2017

For Predicting Elections Globally, Polls Do Surprisingly Well

Assumptions underlying election result predictions have been encountering wide criticism. This study, published in the journal Science, reports the results of a multiyear program to predict direct executive elections in a variety of countries from globally pooled data.
Kelsey Coolidge
January 09, 2017

OEF Research: Why Female Heads of State Have Declined in Recent Years

In 2016 alone, not only did Hillary Clinton and Keiko Fujimori of Peru lose extremely contentious presidential elections, Brazil’s Dilma Rousseff and South Korea’s Park Geun-hye were forced from power. Half as many women hold the highest political office as did in the beginning of 2014.
July 10, 2016

Trying to See the Forest for the Trees Amid Violence in Congo

Though the label reflects how sexual violence has been used as a weapon of war, the label masks women’s powerful activism for peace and political participation in their country, depicting them solely as victims rather than agents of change. It also obscures their varying priorities for security, and...