Publications and Analyses

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Marcy Fowler
Sarah Laderman
Valeriia Hesse
January 19, 2023

ONN Expert Roundup: Northeast Asia Consequences of Nuclear Escalation in Ukraine

The use of a nuclear weapon anywhere in the world would have far-reaching consequences, with effects extending well beyond the immediate area of impact. ONN has previously noted that any further escalation in Ukraine could potentially expand into an increase in military activity or force re-alignmen...
Tianran Xu
December 16, 2022

DPRK Unveils Its Solid-Propellant ICBM Motor

The DPRK claimed to have tested the country’s first large and high-thrust solid-propellant motor on 15 December 2022 at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground. Judging from the stated thrust of 140 tons of force (tf) and purpose, the motor will likely serve as the first stage of a solid-propellant bal...
Veronika Bedenko
Valeriia Hesse
Jaewoo Shin
December 12, 2022

Learning from the JCPOA Experience: Restarting Dialogue Aimed at Crisis Resolution

This paper explores lessons to be learned from the process and framework of the negotiations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with regard to conflict mediation and trust-building, especially during the early stages of negotiation. The findings are based on an analysis of numerous...
Tianran Xu
Katsuhisa Furukawa
Elin Bergner
Kristiana Nitisa
November 11, 2022

Escalating Tensions on the Korean Peninsula

Late September to early November 2022
Since late September, the Korean Peninsula has witnessed a new round of escalation of tensions. Coinciding with multiple joint and individual military exercises of the USA, ROK and Japan, the DPRK launched at least 30 ballistic missiles from 25 September to 14 November 2022 and fired artillery shell...
Marcy Fowler
Elin Bergner
Kristiana Nitisa
November 10, 2022

Combating Nuclear Misinformation and Disinformation

Tools, Approaches and the Role of NGOs and International Organizations
The paper was submitted for the IAEA's Symposium on International Safeguards: Reflecting on the Past and Anticipating the Future.
Elin Bergner
August 18, 2022

DPRK's Declared COVID-19 Victory and Implications for a Next Nuclear Test

On 10 August 2022, Kim Jong Un declared "victory" over the COVID-19 epidemic at the "National meeting of reviewing the emergency anti-epidemic work", while Kim Yo Jong reiterated previous North Korean claims that the virus had entered the country from South Korea and threatened to wipe out the South...
Tianran Xu
July 25, 2022

Emerging Capabilities? The Unflown SLBMs of the DPRK

In its October 2020, January 2021 and April 2022 military parades, the DPRK displayed three types of large submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs): the Pukguksong-4ㅅ, the Pukguksong-5ㅅand an unnamed SLBM, respectively. To date, none of these SLBMs have been flight tested and their developmenta...
Tianran Xu
June 17, 2022

Backgrounder: Previous DPRK Nuclear Tests

The DPRK has conducted six nuclear tests, each of which took place within months of long-range rocket or satellite launches. In anticipation of a possible seventh nuclear test, information on the first six tests has been compiled in this backrounder.
Open Nuclear Network
May 13, 2022

Factors Related to Past DPRK Nuclear Tests

In light of recent analyses about a possible next nuclear weapon test by the DPRK, ONN has compiled data related to each of the six previous nuclear weapon tests of the DPRK, specifically the timing of the previous tests, nuclear test site preparations, launch vehicle development, environmental fact...